kriggins
I was curious this morning about how the system performed relative to the S&P over the time span that is covered by the current, as of 10/28/2016, closed positions list.

Assumptions:
1. Starting account balance - $250,000
2. Maximum number of positions - 5 (According to the list, the system never closed more that this on one day. That does not mean it didn't signal more than this on one day.)
3. Position size - $50,000
4. Commission per round trip - $17.90 ($8.95 per trade)

Based on these assumptions, the total return for the system from 6/15/2016 through 10/28/2016 was 5.3%.

SPY returned 2.7% during that same period.

If we make the rather bold assumption that past performance is indicative of future performance, not smart I know, this equates to an annualized return of 21.2%. Very very dangerous to make this kind of assumption, but with the long term average return of the S&P around 8 or 9%, seems like a good return.

BTW - for those that are interested, the trade costs accounted for a decrease of 0.5% in the total return.

Kevin
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als
Kriggins, see my post about Track Record today. My take is not so rosy as your take. Maybe I am wrong, but we seem to be treading water and not really gaining ground. A good gain with one stock is often offset by a larger loss a few weeks later with the same stock. The biggest problem are the stocks with big drawdowns. When they make an unexpected turn down, it is not with a 3-4% loss. Some of them can have a quick 10-15% loss and that is hard to overcome later. I don't know the answer. That is why I am on this site trying a different approach. I am also not able to make trades as quickly as recommended by admin. So, I don't exist fast enough after a quick pop up or I don't buy quick enough at the right time to get in on some good gains. Does this system work better for day traders that sit at their computers all day and can make a quick buy and sell?
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kriggins
I saw your post.

First: I'm just a subscriber so take what I say below with that in mind.

The AGL method has three different investing strategies. The first is the the short term strategy which is what the closed trade list covers and also what the current alerts are covering. It is very much predicated on being able to monitor the markets and makes trades in the last 30-60 minutes of the trading day.

The send and third are medium and long term strategies that don't require this level of attention. I cannot speak to their track records or returns.

What I know from personal experience is that trying to use hard stops and not monitor during that day does introduce slippage that can make the system produce negative returns. Following the system with active involvement in the last 30 minutes of the trading session does result in the types of returns detailed in the closed positions list.

Note: You can't skip or cherry pick trades for the reasons you mention above.

Note 2: You can find tune entry and exit by dropping down to the 60 minute chart, but that is not something I currently do.
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