kevin.marra
I calculated the "closed trades"  returns 2016  to YTD.   I made a few modifications ( see below).  

How has your selection and methodology evolved since mid-2016?   The returns have been so much better the last 2 yrs...

2016 = + 60%
2017 = + 80%
2018 = + 275 to 325%
2019 ytd = + 250%

  I looked at your returns since 2016.  Had i used a fixed $ amount for each BUY, and bought all of the “closed trades” ( I assume those were only the ones that were “logged”) my returns could have been  somewhere between 276% and 312% in 2018, and YTD in 2019 —about 250%.  i eliminated stocks under $7 , and foreign names. That is my bias.   Also the variance comes from me capping losses at 10 and 15% ( which is what i would do automatically).    I thought about compounding the returns but it was too much work since you often have 2-4 names going at a time. i did  not want to go through the process of linking one trade to the next when several things were going on at a time.  Also, When i tried it for 2019 the numbers got so big that i knew i would never put $300,000 in one idea . (YTD 2019 , the compounded return—just multiplying the returns one after the other in closed trades would have you up 679% .  If you assume an initial $50,000 position you can see how quickly the numbers multiply).
 
So far my returns are not anywhere near these numbers.  Why?  Because i cherry pick trades, have varied my position sizing incorrectly based on my gut instinct, avoided trades for a while after 2-3 losses in a row. In other words i lacked discipline and could not get out of my own way.  Fear of losing is a killer. You cant trade scared.  Going through the returns , one after another, for long periods ( 4 yrs) helped to give confidence in the system/ process.   
 
Again, thank you for the thoughtful response , and your hard work and guidance….
 
BTW, have you thought of going through the IBD 50, eliminating all of the RS names below 85 as a focus list?   I did that . There are 28 names w/ RS above 85 ( a few are in the 82-83 range but the composite score is in the 95 range. These can quickly get back to 90 RS).  I used 85 b/c they have corrected quite a bit. It would  not take much to get them back to 90.  Looks like a good watch list…
 
Best,
Kevin
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AbovetheGreenLine
Thank you. Most of the IBD 50 are in our database, but many do not do the average 1 mil daily Volume wanted, and are omitted.
Good trading, and tell your friends!
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CD581936
Kevin, keep in mind that you are not including many open trades that are extremely underwater (b/w -17 & -54%) at this time (VKTX, I, UNG, CGC, COTY).  I bet that changes your results by a fair amount (don't even consider compounding those trades).  Yes w/ the benefit of hindsight you may have stopped yourself out at 10 or 15% declines; have you been that disciplined w/ your other investments?  In any event, no argument that the system works beautifully in trending markets.  But like any other system, not so much in erratic, whipsawing markets.  I'd be curious to see the results of a simulation that did not move down the stop, i.e. if the holding closed below the original stop you sell vs changing from a short term hold to a medium term or even a long term hold just to avoid selling.  After all, the key to success in all investing is to keep the losses much smaller than the gains.  
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kevin.marra
Well said.  Thank you.   I never let losses go much below 10%.  I 've been a follower of Wm O'neil and Mark Minervini for several yrs.  There were many things i did not consider.  ex.  if i capped losses at 10% would I have missed some big winners ?  i.e. they dropped 13% then bounced .    I did look at several of the bigger losses to see if they gapped well below my 10% stop.  The first 5-6 i looked at did not. I looked at a few subsequent random ones.  All could have gotten out close to 10%.  I admit--  Looking at past results without going through every trade is problematic. However, i tracked most of them this year. Most were very accurate.  I noticed that my results were less positive than the ones posted , but i took many trades that were not posted ( either lacked voln or up > 3%). Also, i cherry picked trades, which cost me.   Most of those turned out to be the culprits.   The benefit of the exercise of going through all of the posted trades is you see periods of a string of losses.  Then, it takes time to recoup those and turn positive again.  The exercise gives one confidence that over time and a lot of trades this strategy can make money.     the key is to cut losses and never average down.   
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