Dbeanman
Does anyone use any major indices like the S&P 500 to help determine your buy timing. 
Assuming you only made purchases when the S&P was crossing over into the green zone it would likely increase your chances of a successful trade, correct? 

Anyone have any common sense approaches they regularly use in addition to the Rules outlined in our AGL strategy? 
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als
I have wondered the same myself. I noticed that this site will recommend some buys when the S&P is going down. Often they have to sell at a loss. Even though a given stock is coming out of the green zone and has good relative strength, to me it would be better to use the direction of the overall market (S&P) as a secondary indicator as to whether to get in or not.

Most sectors are going to be following the overall market, correct? The exceptions might be metals, consumer staples, and utilities. 

I don't know. It is just hard for me to follow this trading strategy, even though I really want it to work, when I see some large losses of 8-11-15%. Looking at the closed positions, it looks like the gains over the last couple of months are all wiped out by the losses. I follow another blog where the trader rotates in and out of the top sectors. He seems to be doing a lot better than this strategy.

Or, maybe even following some longer term moving averages would help. Sometimes I will look at some of their trades that fail quickly. To me the moving averages say that it is not a good time to get in, but their relative strength and coming out of the green zone says it is good to get in. 

I have tried following some trades on this site and I was mostly whipsawed out for a loss. That makes me gun shy to get in when they do have a good trade. So often they recommend a trade 20 min. before the market closes. I cannot get in that quickly, so I have missed some good trades. Or maybe they recommend a trade, I get in, and the next day they say they did not log the trade because it went up too fast. Well, that did not do me any good.  AGL, tell me something to give me hope.  


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AbovetheGreenLine
Buying when the Leaders are Way Above the Green Line is FORCING trades...

When the Short Term Trades are weak like now, the Smart Money is in, and the Markets are too OVER_BOUGHT to go up much.

THERE is NOT UNLIMITED MONEY that goes into the Markets.

Investing requires DISCIPLINE... Wait for DUMPS on BAD NEWS to BUY.

BUYING NOW when TAMMY feels GREAT is a poor bet.

BUY when TAMMY is SCARED!

Good trading, and tell your friends!
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als
Thanks for the response. What or who is TAMMY?

If it is a poor bet to buy now when most people feel great about the market and it is too far above the greenline, then why do you recommend trades at this time? You say we need to be very nimble to invest in the market at this time and the reward/risk ratio is very poor right now. If so, maybe you should not be giving any buy recommendations. You maybe should be saying stay out for now. 

There are some sector etfs up about 15-20% YTD. These are not the risky miners or foreign etfs. I am following some tech etfs like QTEC, SMH, XLK, SOCAL, BOTZ, and FDN, and the QQQ. 

I see many of your trades fizzle even though they have good relative strength and they just came out of the green zone. If we look at the chart of these stocks and the various moving averages, it does not look like a good time to get in. I have said this before, maybe you should incorporate some other indicators besides the green zone and the SCTR when deciding to get in or not. Take VALE for example. The YTD chart looks terrible. You recommend getting in on Apr 4 and out on May 5 for a 13% loss. The moving averages did not indicate a good buy point anytime soon. Jan 11 looked like a good entry point when the MAs 10, 20, 50, 75, 100, and 200 were all slanted up and in a divergent pattern in order. I think this would be a better indication of when to buy and use the green zone and SCTR to verify it.

But I am just a novice trying to find something that works for me. Thanks for listening.

 
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AbovetheGreenLine
The Higher the Markets go, the more new Investors want in (like wrong-way Tammy).

Smart Money Bought on the Green Line before the Election (See Chart Below, when the HERD was scared).

Now the Herd feels Great, based on most sentiment Indicators like VIX (after a 15% Pop on Leading Sectors). AAPL is 25% Above the Green Line... Tammy will sell AAPL at the Green Line for a nice loss.

DIA.png 

VALE is a Value Investment and was 64% above the Green Line in February. Now VALE is on the Green Line, and could go back up to the 2011 Highs of $37 when Inflation comes back... Yes we lost $1.20 on VALE, but we plan on getting back in and eventually making a possible $29.00 on the next Bull rally (see Chart below)... So we risked 13% to make a possible 362%...

Stocks like AAPL & NFLX may never see these High Values again (buying what every Mutual Fund owns usually is a poor choice)...   BUY on FEAR... SELL on GREED... Or be Tammy.


VALE.png 






Good trading, and tell your friends!
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